The Steps Ahead

The basic legislative steps towards a new CAP are:

• the Commission develops a legislative proposal in several stages of consultations and submits it to the Council, composed of the national ministers of agriculture
• the Council agrees on a text through qualified majority voting which it sends to the Parliament
• the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development of the Parliament agrees on a text which is then amended and voted upon in the plenary of the Parliament by simple majority
• if the text of the Parliament differs from the text of the Council, it is sent back to the Council which then has to agree on a revised text
• the text is adopted once Council and Parliament agree; the legislative undertaking has failed if they disagree three times

The legislative procedure for the new long-term EU budget is almost identical. The main difference is that the Council, this time composed of the finance ministers, has to decide by unanimity. Important decisions on the new budget may also be taken at the summits of the heads of state (called European Councils).

Past landmarks are:

• Nov 2008: Conference ‘Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe’ where 300 contributions from stakeholders and 3 scientific studies on the budget review were presented - mostly expressing strong criticism of the CAP.
• Nov 2009: The draft conclusions on the budget review leak from the Commission, calling for significant cuts in the CAP budget. The draft is heavily criticized by defenders of the CAP, including Mariann Fischer-Boel, then-Commissioner for Agriculture, and disappears into the bin.

What can be anticipated is this (with likely time ranges in brackets):

• Conference with the results of the ongoing DG Agriculture stakeholder consultation (19-20 July 2010), contributions can be submitted until 3 June 2010.
• Own-initiative report by the European Parliament on the post-2013 CAP: Committee vote in June, plenary vote in July 2010.
• Commission conclusions on the budget review (probably late September 2010) outline options and indicate preferred directions of budget reform, including the CAP. It is based on the stakeholder consultations conducted since 2008.
• DG Agriculture communication on the CAP (Nov/Dez 2010) describes reform options and preferred directions for the CAP in greater detail.
• Commission legislative proposals for the CAP and the EU long-term budget (July 2011) sent to the Council under the Polish EU Presidency.
• Council-Parliament negotiations: The Council agrees on legislative texts for the CAP and the entire EU long-term budget and sends them to the Parliament (either in late 2011 still under the Polish Presidency or in the first half of 2012 under the Danish Presidency). Agreement between the Council and the Parliament can be expected by the end of 2012 under the Cypriotic Presidency or in the first half of 2013 under the Irish Presidency.
• Entry into effect of the new CAP and the EU long-term budget is foreseen for January 1, 2014. If the legal text can only be finalized in 2013, its implementation may have to be delayed until January 2015. If no agreement on a new EU long-term budget can be obtained, the 2013 budget also applies to 2014.

It is difficult to anticipate how the different bodies involved in decision-making will interact.

• Will the heads of state first determine the CAP budget, and possibly certain spending priorities within the CAP, and leave farm ministers with the secondary role of working out the details? Or will farm ministers agree on the objectives, instruments, and budget needs of the future CAP and present the heads of state with a comprehensive blueprint?
• Will the European Parliament, whose position has been strengthened through the Lisbon Treaty, become as influential as the Council of Ministers? Will the Commission and the Council be responsive to the positions of the Parliament or will the Parliament clash with the Council?
• What will be the influence of the heads of states, who come together as the European Council? Will the new President of the European Council, elected for 2.5 years according to the Lisbon Treaty, exercise a leadership role in the negotiations of the next long-term EU budget?